Specifically, in terms of inventory, the current PTA futures warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange total about 160,000, which is nearly 100,000 lower than the high point of the year, and the PTA spot is about 500,000 tons. Zhuo Chuang Information estimates that the current PTA spot inventory is about 1.2 million tons, which is at a low level. “The inventory of PTA enterprises is low, and the inventory of downstream filament and staple fiber is at a very low level. The market as a whole is in a stage of supply shortage,†Huang Liqiang said. In terms of equipment operating rate, since April this year, domestic PTA plants have been in turn overhauled, and the operating rate of domestic PTA plants has been operating below 70%. At present, the starting load of PTA is 64.43%, which is at a low level; the polyester starting load is 85.38%, which is at a normal level. “The inventory of polyester industry is at a low level, which leads to the increase of stocking in the downstream panic, which will bring some boost to the rebound of PTA futures price,†said Pang Chunyan, an analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures. In terms of spot, according to Pang Chunyan, due to the tight spot, the spot price of PTA continued to rise. The spot price of CCFEI internal disk rose from 5,700 yuan/ton at the end of June to more than 5,200 yuan/ton. This week's gains were obvious. The atmosphere in the spot market is still good, the futures premium has narrowed, and even the spot premium has appeared. In the short term, the tight spot market situation is expected to continue. Pang Chunyan said that the low inventory of the PTA market may lead to a certain increase in prices, and the polyester industry is currently performing well, which can also support a moderate increase in PTA prices. But in the long run, as a overcapacity industry, the space for PTA prices to rise is also difficult to be optimistic. In addition, the downstream polyester filament sales are hot, but it does not mean that the terminal consumption is excellent. Therefore, the short-term PTA futures price rebound is expected to continue, but as the market returns to calm, capital outflows, the pace of price rebound will gradually slow down. Huang Liqiang also believes that due to the recent good market atmosphere of PTA, the market is more enthusiastic, so it is not excluded that the PTA price will increase inertia. However, in the long run, first of all, the overall profit level of PTA enterprises is at a very low level. Under the absence of significant changes in costs, the time and space for PTA price increases are limited. For this round of rise, the external cause is the staged supply shortage caused by the delay in the maintenance of the enterprise. The internal cause is the undervaluation of the value of the increase in cost and the current price difference. However, these are short-term factors, and the overcapacity problem in the PTA industry has not changed. Therefore, in the long run, the PTA price will remain near the cost line, thus achieving production capacity clearing. In addition, from the perspective of cost, although the price of crude oil has stabilized and stabilized, the problem of oversupply of crude oil has not changed, so it is difficult for the cost side to rise sharply. If you are a yoga lover, then you must buy these clothes SHAOXING LIDONG TRADING CO.,LTD , https://www.lidong-garment.com
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PTA futures finally ushered in the beginning of the day
Since this week, PTA futures have ushered in a strong upward trend. The main 1709 contract has continuously broken through the four integer points of 5000, 5100, 5200 and 5300 yuan/ton. Analysts said that the low inventory, the better performance of the polyester chain, the concentration of equipment problems and the long-term capital market, all give a certain rebound momentum for the PTA futures price. In this context, the short-term price is expected to continue the inertia rebound, but in the medium and long term, the price of the futures price may be limited. Huang Liqiang said that due to the decline in the operating rate of PTA enterprises, the demand for downstream polyesters was good, resulting in a low level of PTA inventory and a significant decline in warehouse receipts. At the same time, the suspension of the restart of Hengli Petrochemical at the end of June caused a lack of stage supply in the market, which aggravated the market's worries. Coupled with the continued rebound in crude oil prices, the futures premium spot and the promotion of funds prompted a strong rebound in PTA futures this week.